Along the way, I’m going to expose a lot of wrong thoughts you likely have about seduction, about social interaction, and about the way the world itself works.
I’m going to show you why it’s not entirely correct, and in fact is more incorrect than correct.
Since the probability of at least 2 people having the same birthday and the probability of no one having the same birthday cover all possible scenarios, we know that the sum of their probabilities is 1. Let’s take this step by step: Using factorials, 365!
would equal the product of all descending integers from 365 down to 1. This computes to 0.294 or 29.4% chance no one in the class has the same birthday.
It was a class of about 30 students and the professor bet that at least two of us shared the same birthday.
He then proceeded to have everyone state their birthday.
The American National Election Studies also asked voters to predict the most likely winner of the race, as it’s been doing since 1952.
Anyway like he predicted before he got to the last student a pair of matching birthdays had been found.
So we have to ask: Could this misreading of the polls — and polling-based forecasts — actually have affected the election’s outcome?
It depends on whether you’re talking about how the media and other political elites read the polls — and how that influenced their behavior — or how the general public did.
After four years, scads of lays, and many great girlfriends (plus plenty of failures along the way), he launched this website.
Today’s problem goes out to a special new member of the family. My brother’s beautiful baby girl was born on his 36th birthday this past Saturday and of course this coincidence made me think of the The first time I heard this problem, I was sitting in a 300 level Mathematical Statistics course in a small university in the pacific northwest.